Recent forecast models for Guangzhou on September 30 indicate persistent warm, humid subtropical conditions with high dew points near 25–27°C, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures in the mid-to-upper 20s°C range. Light southerly winds and variable cloud cover further reduce temperature drops, consistent with late-September climatology where average lows hover around 23°C but recent years show warmer readings. Trader sentiment splits nearly evenly between 32°C-or-higher and 22°C-or-below outcomes because of model uncertainty in exact cloud timing, urban heat island effects, and any subtle steering influences that could enhance or suppress overnight cooling. Upcoming model runs and local observations will likely resolve the narrow probability gap.