Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs from global ensembles, point to a Guangzhou minimum temperature on October 9 near 21–23 °C under light northeasterly flow and partly cloudy skies, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values. Stable subtropical high pressure has maintained above-average overnight lows in recent days, with limited diurnal cooling expected before dawn. Historical climatology places the October 9 average low near 22 °C, while current runs show modest spread due to boundary-layer moisture and urban heat effects at official stations. Traders appear to weigh the balance between slight model cooling signals and the risk of warmer readings if cloud cover or wind remains minimal, with resolution hinging on the final 24-hour observational data from authoritative meteorological networks.