Split market odds near 50% for a low of 1°C or below versus 11°C or higher reflect substantial uncertainty in short-range ensemble forecasts for Helsinki on October 2. Numerical weather prediction models show wide spread in 2-meter temperature minima, driven by variable positioning of an approaching low-pressure system and its associated cold front. Some runs advect cooler Arctic air southward, while others maintain milder maritime flow from the Baltic Sea, keeping the city above seasonal norms. High ensemble dispersion typical this far ahead of a frontal passage, plus limited recent observational updates from regional soundings, sustains the balanced trader sentiment ahead of tomorrow’s updated model cycles.