Recent forecast consensus from meteorological models points to a minimum temperature in Helsinki on October 3 near 10–11°C, driven by mild southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and Baltic Sea moderation that limits radiative cooling overnight. This places outcomes around 9–12°C in contention while keeping 5°C or below dependent on stronger northerly advection or clearer conditions that enhance heat loss. The near-even market split between broad low and high thresholds reflects model uncertainty in exact overnight minimums, typical for early autumn when small shifts in cloud cover or wind speed can alter the diurnal range by 2–3°C. Updated runs from agencies like the Finnish Meteorological Institute and short-range ensembles will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.