**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory position the minimum temperature on October 9 near 26°C.** Under a dry northeast monsoon and upper-level anticyclone, skies will be mainly fine with large diurnal ranges and low humidity, supporting a minimum around 26°C in urban areas and slightly lower in the New Territories. Multiple models converge on overnight lows of 25–26°C, consistent with recent stabilization after earlier variability. Traders assign 56% implied probability to exactly 26°C and 40% to 25°C, reflecting the narrow forecast spread and limited downside risk from further cooling. Resolution depends on the official HKO daily minimum recorded overnight into October 9, with no major weather shifts anticipated before then.