**Trader consensus strongly favors a 25°C daily minimum in Hong Kong on October 10, 2026, reflecting current forecast guidance showing overnight lows stabilizing near this threshold under clear to mostly clear conditions and light easterly flow.** Official model runs and climatological normals from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate typical October transition temperatures with mean lows around 21–23°C, yet 2026 patterns feature elevated nighttime readings driven by above-average sea surface temperatures and limited radiative cooling. This positions 25°C as the expected floor, consistent with recent daily extracts showing minima in the mid-20s. A rapid shift to stronger northerly winds, increased cloud cover, or an unforecast frontal boundary could push readings to 23°C or below, though such developments remain low-probability based on the latest consensus.