**Persistent warm, humid air mass and limited overnight cooling are positioning mid- to upper-70s°F as the most likely minimum temperature range for Houston on October 2, 2026.** National Weather Service forecasts from the Houston/Galveston office and multiple model runs indicate a Friday night low near 74–76°F under mostly cloudy skies, with showers and thunderstorms expected to maintain elevated dew points and restrict radiative cooling. Southeast to east winds of 5–10 mph further suppress temperature drops by advecting Gulf moisture. This aligns with the market-implied emphasis on 78–79°F (highest probability at 60%), though slight model spread around cloud cover and storm timing introduces uncertainty that supports secondary probabilities in the mid-70s. Above-average temperatures persist due to the lack of a strong cold front; climatological October lows average near 68°F, but current conditions reflect an extended warm spell with heat indices often exceeding 100°F during the day. Upcoming NWS updates and evening model runs will refine the exact minimum, particularly if convection timing shifts. The low probability on 71°F or below (5%) reflects the unlikelihood of significant cooling under these synoptic conditions.