**Forecast consensus from meteorological models points to an overnight low in Madrid near 12–13°C on October 8, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies that promote radiative cooling.** In Madrid’s continental climate, clear nights allow efficient longwave radiation loss from the surface, driving minimum temperatures close to the seasonal average of about 12°C for early October. Slight differences among leading outcomes (11–13°C) stem from uncertainties in exact cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and wind speeds, which modulate how much heat escapes overnight. Official observations at stations such as Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas will resolve the market once the daily minimum is recorded. Trader probabilities remain tightly clustered because current model runs show only modest spread around this range.