Recent forecast consensus from GFS and other models points to clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and strong nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure, supporting overnight lows near 7–9 °C for Madrid on October 9—well below the early-October climatological average of roughly 11–12 °C. This setup favors the lower end of the distribution without reaching the coldest tail, while model spread and potential subtle shifts in steering flow keep the probability of 4 °C or below nearly equal to that of 14 °C or higher. Traders are therefore pricing genuine uncertainty in the final minimum rather than a single dominant outcome.