Current forecast models indicate notable uncertainty in Madrid's overnight minimum for September 28, with ensemble spreads reflecting variable steering patterns and a possible Atlantic front influencing radiative cooling under clear skies versus increased cloud cover and mixing. Official guidance from agencies like AEMET shows projected lows clustered near 18–21°C, yet divergences in high-resolution runs create balanced market-implied odds between sub-14°C scenarios and readings at or above 23°C. Key variables include surface wind speeds, dew point depressions, and urban heat island effects that can shift minima by several degrees. Updated model cycles and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.