**Typical subtropical summer conditions in Miami favor overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s°F.** With high humidity, frequent cloud cover, and persistent sea-breeze flow, radiative cooling remains limited, keeping minimum temperatures close to the June climatological average of roughly 77–79°F at Miami International Airport. Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and the National Weather Service project a low near 79–81°F for June 17 under partly cloudy skies and light southwest winds, with no incoming fronts or unusual atmospheric setup to drive significant deviation. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around these values, producing the market’s tight distribution across 76–81°F bins. Traders assign the highest probability (40%) to 78–79°F because this matches both current model consensus and observed recent nights, while the 25.5% on 76–77°F reflects residual uncertainty from possible localized cooling under clearer patches. Higher bins (80°F+) receive lower weight absent any warming signal such as increased moisture or reduced wind. Resolution hinges on the official 24-hour minimum at the designated station, with any late-day showers or wind shifts the main variables that could nudge the outcome within the favored range.