Forecast models from multiple meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature in Milan of approximately 14°C overnight into October 5, 2026, under stable high pressure with light easterly winds and patchy haze or low clouds. This consensus aligns closely with the market's leading 13°C outcome at 75% implied probability, as traders weigh official guidance showing early-morning lows near 13–15°C before daytime warming to 23–25°C. Nearby probabilities for 9–11°C reflect residual uncertainty in exact hourly minima or microclimate variations at measurement sites, while outcomes above 14°C or below 9°C remain marginal given the absence of cold advection or clear-sky radiative cooling. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the day will refine resolution criteria.