Recent forecast runs from global models indicate the lowest temperature in Milan on October 6 will most likely occur overnight under partly cloudy skies with light easterly flow, producing radiative cooling that settles readings in the 14–16°C range. This autumnal pattern, without an incoming cold front or clear-sky enhancement of nocturnal cooling, underpins the market-implied 49% probability for 19°C or higher while distributing the remaining sentiment across 10–18°C outcomes at roughly 34% each. Official station data from Milano Linate will resolve the market once the full diurnal minimum is recorded.