Current ensemble forecasts from sources including the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia and global models indicate Moscow’s minimum temperature on September 29 will likely fall between 6–9 °C under clearing skies and light northerly flow, with high pressure supporting moderate radiational cooling overnight. This places the outcome firmly between the market’s two leading bins—1 °C or below versus 11 °C or higher—whose near-even implied probabilities reflect residual spread in short-range model runs rather than any single recent shift. Key variables still in play include exact cloud cover during the pre-dawn hours and minor adjustments to 850 hPa temperatures; updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range and influence resolution of these closely matched outcomes.