Persistent rain and strong northerly winds are holding New York City temperatures in a narrow range, with official forecasts from the National Weather Service and models showing a minimum near 58–59 °F on September 26 amid widespread cloud cover and gusts to 45 mph. This pattern stems from an onshore flow of cooler maritime air that limits both daytime warming and overnight radiative cooling, keeping the diurnal range small. Historical September 26 averages place the normal low near 58 °F, so current conditions align closely with climatology while reducing the chance of brief dips into the mid-50s. Traders are therefore splitting probability between the 56–57 °F and 58–59 °F bins, with resolution hinging on the official Central Park minimum reported by the National Weather Service.