Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for New York City points to a daily minimum temperature near 58–60 °F on September 29, 2026, after a cool frontal passage brings northerly flow and clearing skies. Light northwest winds of 5–10 mph and reduced cloud cover overnight should allow modest radiational cooling, keeping the low in that narrow range rather than permitting a sharper drop below 55 °F or a rebound above 62 °F. The 60–61 °F bin therefore commands the highest implied probability, while the 24 % chance assigned to 51 °F or below reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-model shifts. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs from NOAA that show little day-to-day volatility in the overnight minimum.