**Latest ensemble forecasts from models such as GFS project an overnight minimum of 14–16 °C in Paris on 26 September under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light northwesterly winds.** These conditions limit radiative cooling while maintaining moderate humidity, producing a narrow range of possible lows centered on 14–15 °C. Market-implied odds align closely with this consensus, with 14 °C and 15 °C together exceeding 75 % probability. Historical September minima for the date average near 13–15 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above the long-term baseline. Traders are watching the final 00–06 UTC model updates and any last-minute shifts in cloud cover or wind that could push the reading one degree lower or higher before official Météo-France observations are recorded.