Current high-pressure blocking over western and central Europe continues to steer mild southerly and easterly flow into the Paris basin, keeping overnight lows well above the long-term September 27 average of 10.5 °C. Ensemble guidance from GFS, ECMWF, and DWD-MOSMIX clusters minimum temperatures between roughly 12–15 °C, with the tightest consensus near 13–14 °C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds that permit moderate radiational cooling. Key variables separating the leading market outcomes are the precise timing and coverage of high clouds (which reduce nocturnal heat loss) and subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island effects within the city. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of the overnight period.