Forecast models from the National Weather Service and others indicate a Saturday night low near 52°F for San Francisco on October 10, 2026, driven by onshore westerly flow advecting cool marine air, partial clearing after morning drizzle, and moderate radiative cooling under mostly clear skies. Trader consensus around the mid-50s bins reflects typical October nocturnal temperatures moderated by the urban heat island and San Francisco Bay influence, while the elevated probability on 64°F or higher captures residual uncertainty in wind-driven mixing or delayed clearing. Key variables differentiating outcomes include exact dewpoint depression, sustained wind speeds above 10 mph that limit surface cooling, and any late-evening marine layer reformation—factors that official guidance shows can shift the minimum by several degrees within the resolution window. Historical averages near 55°F provide context for this range-bound market.