**Current National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco point to an overnight low in the lower 50s on October 11, driven by a deepening marine layer and northerly flow behind a cut-off low-pressure system southwest of the region.** This setup favors minimum temperatures near the historical average of 55°F for the date, with model consensus supporting 52–55°F readings under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate west-to-northwest winds. Recent cooling of 5–15°F below prior days reflects the marine influence and frontal passage, reducing chances for extremes below 50°F while keeping 62°F or higher unlikely for the daily minimum. Traders appear to weigh forecast uncertainty around exact wind mixing and stratus timing, with upcoming NWS model updates and local observations likely to refine probabilities ahead of resolution. Historical analogs show October 11 lows rarely dip below 49°F, aligning with the low implied odds for colder bins.