**Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to an overnight low of 50–52°F in Seattle on October 6 under persistent high pressure, light northerly flow, and mostly clear skies that limit strong radiational cooling.** This air mass, which has kept early October temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 average low of 48.8°F, favors a minimum in the low 50s—above the 45°F threshold but far below 64°F. Recent dry, mild conditions with minimal cloud cover and weak onshore influence have stabilized the forecast, though small shifts in the thermal trough or increased marine layer moisture could nudge the low a few degrees either way before the 6th. Traders appear to weigh this consensus against the possibility of forecast evolution in the final 48 hours.