**Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 29 will likely fall in the 22–24°C range, aligning closely with the market's leading outcomes at 23°C (35.5%), 22°C (23.5%), and 24°C (22.5%).** Persistent cloud cover, expected moderate to heavy rain, and northeasterly winds are moderating daytime heating while limiting radiative cooling overnight, producing a narrow temperature band consistent with late-September climatology. Model consensus shows little support for extremes below 20°C or above 26°C, reflected in their lower implied probabilities. Updated runs from regional and global models continue to converge on this mild outcome, with only modest day-to-day adjustments expected before resolution.