Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Shenzhen's overnight low on October 8 will likely settle between 23–25 °C under easterly flow, high humidity near 70 %, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. Dew points around 18–20 °C and light northeast winds of 5–8 m/s further constrain how far temperatures can fall after sunset. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 22–25 °C reflects small but consequential differences in model guidance on cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing, with official Shenzhen station observations serving as the resolution source. Historical October minima in the region average near 23 °C, providing context for the current narrow range of outcomes.