Recent forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration project minimum temperatures in Shenzhen around 22–24°C on October 9, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure system, clear to partly cloudy skies, and light easterly winds that moderate nocturnal radiative cooling in this subtropical coastal setting. These conditions align with early-October climatology, where daily lows typically range 22–25°C absent cold fronts or typhoon influences. The market's emphasis on 30°C-or-higher outcomes alongside clustered 21–26°C probabilities reflects trader assessment of model consensus and limited downside risk from unexpected cooling, with final NHC-style updates expected to refine the exact minimum before resolution.