**Current forecast consensus from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and international models points to a daily minimum near 23°C for Taipei on October 3, driven by the strengthening northeast monsoon delivering cooler, humid air after recent warmer conditions.** Northeast monsoon flow, combined with scattered showers and persistent cloud cover, limits nighttime radiative cooling and keeps temperatures from dropping sharply. Model runs show modest spread around 22–24°C depending on exact rain timing and wind strength, which explains the closely matched market probabilities across the 21–29°C range. Historical October lows in Taipei average 22–23°C, providing context for why traders see balanced risk between sub-21°C and mid-20s outcomes as the date approaches. Updated model guidance on October 2 will likely refine the final minimum.