Recent short-range forecasts from global models indicate Toronto's overnight low on October 1 will likely fall in the 11–16 °C range, near or slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 10.7 °C for the date. Persistent El Niño conditions, elevated Great Lakes water temperatures, and southerly flow are suppressing Arctic intrusions and supporting above-normal warmth, though a passing frontal system with showers may enhance radiational cooling potential. Ensemble spread remains notable for the exact minimum, with some guidance favoring values near 12 °C while others hold closer to 15 °C, producing the market's near-even split between the ≤12 °C and ≥22 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and official Environment Canada guidance ahead of the date will likely narrow this uncertainty.