Recent forecast model consensus from Environment Canada and international agencies points to clear skies and light winds overnight into October 3, supporting a Toronto low near 9–11 °C after the passage of a cold front. This range aligns with current market-implied probabilities clustered around those values, as traders weigh the latest GFS and regional model runs showing minimal cloud cover and dew points in the 7–9 °C band. Historical early-October climatology places average overnight lows near 10 °C, providing context for why sub-8 °C or 13 °C+ outcomes remain lower probability. Updated model guidance expected later today could refine the exact minimum before resolution.