**Mild southwesterly flow is the main driver positioning mid-single-digit to low-teen Celsius minimums as the market focus for Toronto’s October 7 low.** Official Environment Canada guidance and GFS-based models show overnight lows near 8–11 °C under partly cloudy skies with a 20–40 % shower chance, following a sharp cool-down that brought 3–6 °C readings on the 5th–6th. Historical climatology places the early-October average low near 9–10 °C, so the current forecast sits close to normal but warmer than the preceding nights. Trader consensus (34 % range on 10–12 °C outcomes, 48.5 % on 15 °C+) reflects model agreement on modest warming without strong cold-air advection, while the 2.5 % tail on 5 °C or below captures residual downside risk from any faster-clearing skies or measurement-station variability. Updated model runs and the next Environment Canada briefing remain the key near-term catalysts.