Recent forecast guidance from models such as GFS points to a mild overnight low near 6–8 °C in Warsaw on October 12, with daytime highs of 11–13 °C under variable westerly flow and scattered showers. Light winds and increasing cloud cover are expected to limit radiative cooling, keeping temperatures above seasonal norms while preventing sharp drops. Trader consensus around 4–9 °C at comparable implied probabilities reflects the narrow spread among ensemble members and the sensitivity of minimum readings to small differences in cloud timing or boundary-layer moisture. Official observations will resolve the market based on the coldest hourly reading at the primary Warsaw station.