Trader consensus strongly favors a 7°C minimum in Warsaw on October 5, driven by convergence across ensemble numerical weather prediction models showing stable overnight cooling under moderate westerly flow and mostly cloudy conditions that limit radiative heat loss. Recent model runs from major centers have narrowed uncertainty around this threshold, consistent with observed surface temperatures and climatological October baselines near 6–11°C. High market-implied odds reflect the low probability of significant deviations in the final hours before resolution. A realistic challenge would require sharper clear-sky cooling or an unanticipated cold-air advection not captured in current guidance, though official forecasts indicate limited scope for such shifts before verification.