Recent ensemble forecasts and early observations for Warsaw on October 8 show overnight lows clustered near 10–11°C under mostly cloudy skies and southerly flow, driving the tight market clustering around 8–10°C. Persistent cloud cover reduces radiational cooling compared to clear conditions, while mild advection from the south limits further drops; model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and wind gusts create the narrow uncertainty band between 8°C and 10°C. Historical October minima average near 8–9°C, but current above-normal warmth and weak pressure gradients support the market-implied odds favoring the upper end of that range ahead of final resolution.