Forecast models from sources including the National Weather Service equivalents and European ensembles indicate a daily minimum in Warsaw on October 9 centered near 10°C, driven by a westerly flow advecting milder maritime air behind a frontal passage. Cloud cover and wind speeds of 15–25 km/h are expected to limit radiational cooling overnight, while any breaks in overcast conditions could allow temperatures to dip several degrees lower. This uncertainty between a more stable mild scenario and modest cooling explains the near-even market split between sub-5°C and 15°C+ outcomes, with single-degree bins reflecting model spread rather than strong consensus. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts or local observations on the morning of October 9 will likely resolve the range.