Recent forecasts for Wellington indicate overnight lows on September 26 clustering between 6°C and 9°C amid a transition to stronger northwesterly winds and increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching front. Official guidance from MetService and international models such as ECMWF show minimum temperatures near 8–9°C, with reduced radiative cooling from cloud and wind preventing sharper drops. Trader consensus splitting evenly between 8°C and 9°C at 50% each reflects this narrow forecast spread and typical model variability in boundary-layer conditions. Lower probabilities for 7°C or below align with the limited potential for clearer skies or lighter winds that would allow greater cooling, while higher outcomes remain unlikely given the mild air mass in place.