Recent model consensus and official guidance from MetService point to a frontal passage and wind shift from strong northwesterlies to southwesterlies on September 27 driving cooler maritime air into Wellington, supporting a daily minimum near 5–7 °C. This change follows persistent northerly flow and coincides with periods of rain that limit daytime warming while potentially allowing clearer skies and enhanced radiational cooling overnight once the front clears. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread around these values, consistent with historical September minima near 7–10 °C but tempered by the expected southerly advection and gusty conditions that reduce extreme overnight drops. Traders appear split between scenarios of stronger cooling below 3 °C if skies clear rapidly versus milder readings above 10 °C if cloud cover or residual warmth lingers, with upcoming model runs and surface observations likely to refine the exact minimum before resolution.