Forecast models from sources including ECMWF and local agencies show Wellington's overnight minimum on September 26 hovering near 8–9 °C under northerly winds of 10–14 m/s, partly cloudy skies, and light or no precipitation. This produces the near-even split between the 8 °C and 9 °C outcomes, with 7 °C remaining competitive because modest radiative cooling under brief clear intervals or slightly lighter winds could shave an extra degree. Higher probabilities for sub-6 °C remain low given the mild advection, while double-digit minima would require stronger warm-air advection or persistent cloud cover that current runs do not strongly support. Updated model guidance and official MetService observations through the evening will determine which threshold is crossed.