Meta’s core advertising business, which delivered 28% YoY revenue growth to $60.8 billion in Q2 2026 with AI-optimized tools like Advantage+, anchors trader sentiment for its end-October market cap amid heavy AI infrastructure outlays. Recent Muse Spark 1.1/1.2 releases and the open-weight Muse Glimmer model have bolstered competitive positioning against OpenAI and Anthropic while expanding developer APIs and local agentic capabilities, yet $130–145 billion 2026 capex—primarily for data centers and custom silicon like the upcoming Iris chip—plus $2.4 billion legal charges and youth-safety trial risks have compressed margins and contributed to recent share-price volatility around $550. These factors sustain the $1.25–1.50T range as the consensus outcome, with modest upside to $1.50–1.75T hinging on sustained ad pricing gains and monetization of excess compute.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1.25-$1.50T 40%
$1.50-$1.75T 25%
$1.00-$1.25T 21%
$1.75-$2.00T 6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
<$1.00T
3%
$1.00-$1.25T
21%
$1.25-$1.50T
40%
$1.50-$1.75T
25%
$1.75-$2.00T
6%
$2.00-$2.25T
3%
$2.25T+
3%
$1.25-$1.50T 40%
$1.50-$1.75T 25%
$1.00-$1.25T 21%
$1.75-$2.00T 6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
<$1.00T
$0 Vol.
3%
$1.00-$1.25T
$0 Vol.
21%
$1.25-$1.50T
$0 Vol.
40%
$1.50-$1.75T
$0 Vol.
25%
$1.75-$2.00T
$0 Vol.
6%
$2.00-$2.25T
$0 Vol.
3%
$2.25T+
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Meta’s core advertising business, which delivered 28% YoY revenue growth to $60.8 billion in Q2 2026 with AI-optimized tools like Advantage+, anchors trader sentiment for its end-October market cap amid heavy AI infrastructure outlays. Recent Muse Spark 1.1/1.2 releases and the open-weight Muse Glimmer model have bolstered competitive positioning against OpenAI and Anthropic while expanding developer APIs and local agentic capabilities, yet $130–145 billion 2026 capex—primarily for data centers and custom silicon like the upcoming Iris chip—plus $2.4 billion legal charges and youth-safety trial risks have compressed margins and contributed to recent share-price volatility around $550. These factors sustain the $1.25–1.50T range as the consensus outcome, with modest upside to $1.50–1.75T hinging on sustained ad pricing gains and monetization of excess compute.
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Meta’s core advertising business, which delivered 28% YoY revenue growth to $60.8 billion in Q2 2026 with AI-optimized tools like Advantage+, anchors trader sentiment for its end-October market cap amid heavy AI infrastructure outlays. Recent Muse Spark 1.1/1.2 releases and the open-weight Muse Glimmer model have bolstered competitive positioning against OpenAI and Anthropic while expanding developer APIs and local agentic capabilities, yet $130–145 billion 2026 capex—primarily for data centers and custom silicon like the upcoming Iris chip—plus $2.4 billion legal charges and youth-safety trial risks have compressed margins and contributed to recent share-price volatility around $550. These factors sustain the $1.25–1.50T range as the consensus outcome, with modest upside to $1.50–1.75T hinging on sustained ad pricing gains and monetization of excess compute.
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta’s core advertising business, which delivered 28% YoY revenue growth to $60.8 billion in Q2 2026 with AI-optimized tools like Advantage+, anchors trader sentiment for its end-October market cap amid heavy AI infrastructure outlays. Recent Muse Spark 1.1/1.2 releases and the open-weight Muse Glimmer model have bolstered competitive positioning against OpenAI and Anthropic while expanding developer APIs and local agentic capabilities, yet $130–145 billion 2026 capex—primarily for data centers and custom silicon like the upcoming Iris chip—plus $2.4 billion legal charges and youth-safety trial risks have compressed margins and contributed to recent share-price volatility around $550. These factors sustain the $1.25–1.50T range as the consensus outcome, with modest upside to $1.50–1.75T hinging on sustained ad pricing gains and monetization of excess compute.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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