Meta’s current market capitalization near $1.51 trillion reflects trader focus on the tension between robust advertising revenue growth—up 28% year-over-year in Q2 2026 to $60.8 billion, aided by AI-enhanced targeting—and sharply higher capital expenditures now guided at $130–145 billion for the full year. The July 29 earnings release triggered an immediate 10% stock drop as free cash flow collapsed and Q3 revenue guidance came in softer than expected, underscoring near-term margin pressure from data-center and large language model investments. With end-of-September resolution only weeks away, sentiment hinges on whether ad impressions and pricing can sustain momentum amid ongoing AI infrastructure buildout and any incremental product updates before the next earnings cycle. The closely matched $1.25–1.50T and $1.50–1.75T buckets capture this uncertainty over how quickly hyperscale spending converts into measurable competitive gains versus peers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1.25-$1.50T 43%
$1.50-$1.75T 39%
$2.25T+ 10%
$1.00-$1.25T 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.00T
3%
$1.00-$1.25T
8%
$1.25-$1.50T
43%
$1.50-$1.75T
39%
$1.75-$2.00T
8%
$2.00-$2.25T
3%
$2.25T+
10%
$1.25-$1.50T 43%
$1.50-$1.75T 39%
$2.25T+ 10%
$1.00-$1.25T 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.00T
$0 Vol.
3%
$1.00-$1.25T
$0 Vol.
8%
$1.25-$1.50T
$0 Vol.
43%
$1.50-$1.75T
$0 Vol.
39%
$1.75-$2.00T
$0 Vol.
8%
$2.00-$2.25T
$0 Vol.
3%
$2.25T+
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Meta’s current market capitalization near $1.51 trillion reflects trader focus on the tension between robust advertising revenue growth—up 28% year-over-year in Q2 2026 to $60.8 billion, aided by AI-enhanced targeting—and sharply higher capital expenditures now guided at $130–145 billion for the full year. The July 29 earnings release triggered an immediate 10% stock drop as free cash flow collapsed and Q3 revenue guidance came in softer than expected, underscoring near-term margin pressure from data-center and large language model investments. With end-of-September resolution only weeks away, sentiment hinges on whether ad impressions and pricing can sustain momentum amid ongoing AI infrastructure buildout and any incremental product updates before the next earnings cycle. The closely matched $1.25–1.50T and $1.50–1.75T buckets capture this uncertainty over how quickly hyperscale spending converts into measurable competitive gains versus peers.
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Meta’s current market capitalization near $1.51 trillion reflects trader focus on the tension between robust advertising revenue growth—up 28% year-over-year in Q2 2026 to $60.8 billion, aided by AI-enhanced targeting—and sharply higher capital expenditures now guided at $130–145 billion for the full year. The July 29 earnings release triggered an immediate 10% stock drop as free cash flow collapsed and Q3 revenue guidance came in softer than expected, underscoring near-term margin pressure from data-center and large language model investments. With end-of-September resolution only weeks away, sentiment hinges on whether ad impressions and pricing can sustain momentum amid ongoing AI infrastructure buildout and any incremental product updates before the next earnings cycle. The closely matched $1.25–1.50T and $1.50–1.75T buckets capture this uncertainty over how quickly hyperscale spending converts into measurable competitive gains versus peers.
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta’s current market capitalization near $1.51 trillion reflects trader focus on the tension between robust advertising revenue growth—up 28% year-over-year in Q2 2026 to $60.8 billion, aided by AI-enhanced targeting—and sharply higher capital expenditures now guided at $130–145 billion for the full year. The July 29 earnings release triggered an immediate 10% stock drop as free cash flow collapsed and Q3 revenue guidance came in softer than expected, underscoring near-term margin pressure from data-center and large language model investments. With end-of-September resolution only weeks away, sentiment hinges on whether ad impressions and pricing can sustain momentum amid ongoing AI infrastructure buildout and any incremental product updates before the next earnings cycle. The closely matched $1.25–1.50T and $1.50–1.75T buckets capture this uncertainty over how quickly hyperscale spending converts into measurable competitive gains versus peers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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