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icon for MLB: AL Rookie of the Year
Sports·Baseball

MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

icon for MLB: AL Rookie of the Year
Sports·Baseball

MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

Kevin McGonigle 90%

Parker Messick 6.5%

Munetaka Murakami <1%

Kazuma Okamoto <1%

Polymarket

$1,659,119 Vol.

Kevin McGonigle 90%

Parker Messick 6.5%

Munetaka Murakami <1%

Kazuma Okamoto <1%

Polymarket

$1,659,119 Vol.

Kevin McGonigle

$55,930 Vol.

90%

Parker Messick

$8,602 Vol.

6%

Munetaka Murakami

$62,865 Vol.

<1%

Kazuma Okamoto

$230,853 Vol.

<1%

Walker Jenkins

$63,796 Vol.

<1%

Carter Jensen

$95,149 Vol.

<1%

Samuel Basallo

$2,450 Vol.

<1%

Trey Yesavage

$3,889 Vol.

<1%

Tatsuya Imai

$833 Vol.

<1%

Chase DeLauter

$5,294 Vol.

<1%

Connelly Early

$71,775 Vol.

<1%

Carson Williams

$430,628 Vol.

<1%

Dylan Beavers

$1,464 Vol.

<1%

Travis Bazzana

$5,732 Vol.

<1%

Colt Emerson

$2,546 Vol.

<1%

Payton Tolle

$195,744 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Lagrange

$66,342 Vol.

<1%

Brice Matthews

$141,061 Vol.

<1%

Spencer Jones

$38,210 Vol.

<1%

Leo De Vries

$112,098 Vol.

<1%

Max Clark

$63,397 Vol.

<1%

George Lombard Jr.

$231 Vol.

<1%

Sam Antonacci

$231 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kevin McGonigle of the Detroit Tigers holds an overwhelming lead in the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year market due to his historic all-around rookie campaign. The 22-year-old infielder has posted a .274/.376/.424 line with 17 home runs, 70 RBI, 95 runs, 12 stolen bases, and 6.7 bWAR across 151 games while earning All-Star honors and a major contract extension. His elite plate discipline, low strikeout rate, and strong defense at shortstop and third base have outpaced competitors in most advanced metrics. Parker Messick remains the clearest alternative with his strong pitching numbers for the Guardians, yet McGonigle’s positional value and consistent production across the full season underpin the current trader consensus. Late injuries, a dramatic September surge by another rookie, or unusual voter emphasis on pitching could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts appear remote with the regular season nearly complete.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,659,119
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kevin McGonigle of the Detroit Tigers holds an overwhelming lead in the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year market due to his historic all-around rookie campaign. The 22-year-old infielder has posted a .274/.376/.424 line with 17 home runs, 70 RBI, 95 runs, 12 stolen bases, and 6.7 bWAR across 151 games while earning All-Star honors and a major contract extension. His elite plate discipline, low strikeout rate, and strong defense at shortstop and third base have outpaced competitors in most advanced metrics. Parker Messick remains the clearest alternative with his strong pitching numbers for the Guardians, yet McGonigle’s positional value and consistent production across the full season underpin the current trader consensus. Late injuries, a dramatic September surge by another rookie, or unusual voter emphasis on pitching could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts appear remote with the regular season nearly complete.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,659,119
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin McGonigle" at 90%, followed by "Parker Messick" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" has generated $1.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" is "Kevin McGonigle" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Parker Messick" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.