OpenAI’s accelerating revenue trajectory and commanding position in generative AI, with run-rate revenue reaching $25 billion earlier this year and a stated target of $100 billion annualized by 2027, anchor trader expectations for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion at 68.3% implied probability. CEO Sam Altman’s refusal to accept any IPO valuation below $1 trillion, following the $852 billion private mark from the March 2026 funding round, has shifted the timeline to 2027, as confirmed in September statements citing AI safety priorities and infrastructure demands. This dynamic, alongside heavy compute spending and competitive positioning against peers, supports the market-implied odds while leaving room for shifts from execution milestones or broader tech-sector multiples.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 68.3%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 15.0%
1.25T–1.5T 10%
1T–1.25T 3.9%
$338,013 Vol.
$338,013 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
2%
1T–1.25T
4%
1.25T–1.5T
10%
1.5T+
68%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
15%
1.5T+ 68.3%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 15.0%
1.25T–1.5T 10%
1T–1.25T 3.9%
$338,013 Vol.
$338,013 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$28,880 Vol.
1%
500–750B
$26,598 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$64,673 Vol.
2%
1T–1.25T
$39,573 Vol.
4%
1.25T–1.5T
$29,296 Vol.
10%
1.5T+
$76,446 Vol.
68%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$72,548 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s accelerating revenue trajectory and commanding position in generative AI, with run-rate revenue reaching $25 billion earlier this year and a stated target of $100 billion annualized by 2027, anchor trader expectations for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion at 68.3% implied probability. CEO Sam Altman’s refusal to accept any IPO valuation below $1 trillion, following the $852 billion private mark from the March 2026 funding round, has shifted the timeline to 2027, as confirmed in September statements citing AI safety priorities and infrastructure demands. This dynamic, alongside heavy compute spending and competitive positioning against peers, supports the market-implied odds while leaving room for shifts from execution milestones or broader tech-sector multiples.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$338,013End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s accelerating revenue trajectory and commanding position in generative AI, with run-rate revenue reaching $25 billion earlier this year and a stated target of $100 billion annualized by 2027, anchor trader expectations for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion at 68.3% implied probability. CEO Sam Altman’s refusal to accept any IPO valuation below $1 trillion, following the $852 billion private mark from the March 2026 funding round, has shifted the timeline to 2027, as confirmed in September statements citing AI safety priorities and infrastructure demands. This dynamic, alongside heavy compute spending and competitive positioning against peers, supports the market-implied odds while leaving room for shifts from execution milestones or broader tech-sector multiples.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$338,013End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s accelerating revenue trajectory and commanding position in generative AI, with run-rate revenue reaching $25 billion earlier this year and a stated target of $100 billion annualized by 2027, anchor trader expectations for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion at 68.3% implied probability. CEO Sam Altman’s refusal to accept any IPO valuation below $1 trillion, following the $852 billion private mark from the March 2026 funding round, has shifted the timeline to 2027, as confirmed in September statements citing AI safety priorities and infrastructure demands. This dynamic, alongside heavy compute spending and competitive positioning against peers, supports the market-implied odds while leaving room for shifts from execution milestones or broader tech-sector multiples.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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