With the 2026 awards cycle still in its early stages, trader sentiment for the Oscars 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay reflects broad uncertainty across a crowded field. The Invite and The Black Ball lead at 28.5% implied probability each, followed by The Odyssey at 16.5%, as markets price in potential frontrunners based on source material strength, announced adaptations, and early industry buzz. Numerous other titles sit at lower odds, underscoring how guild nominations, critics' awards, and festival premieres later this year could rapidly shift momentum. Historical patterns show adapted categories often hinge on late-breaking critical consensus and voter sentiment closer to the ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
The Invite 29%
The Black Ball 29%
The Odyssey 20%
All of a Sudden 8.0%
$27,796 Vol.
$27,796 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
The Invite
29%
The Black Ball
29%
The Odyssey
20%
All of a Sudden
8%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
6%
Wildwood
6%
Project Hail Mary
5%
The Social Reckoning
5%
Ink
5%
Dune: Part Three
4%
Cry to Heaven
1%
Clarissa
1%
Saturn Return
1%
Toy Story 5
1%
The Whisper Man
1%
The Invite 29%
The Black Ball 29%
The Odyssey 20%
All of a Sudden 8.0%
$27,796 Vol.
$27,796 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
The Invite
$5,141 Vol.
29%
The Black Ball
$15,496 Vol.
29%
The Odyssey
$2,380 Vol.
20%
All of a Sudden
$633 Vol.
8%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
$395 Vol.
6%
Wildwood
$546 Vol.
6%
Project Hail Mary
$480 Vol.
5%
The Social Reckoning
$265 Vol.
5%
Ink
$862 Vol.
5%
Dune: Part Three
$426 Vol.
4%
Cry to Heaven
$221 Vol.
1%
Clarissa
$182 Vol.
1%
Saturn Return
$218 Vol.
1%
Toy Story 5
$343 Vol.
1%
The Whisper Man
$207 Vol.
1%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With the 2026 awards cycle still in its early stages, trader sentiment for the Oscars 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay reflects broad uncertainty across a crowded field. The Invite and The Black Ball lead at 28.5% implied probability each, followed by The Odyssey at 16.5%, as markets price in potential frontrunners based on source material strength, announced adaptations, and early industry buzz. Numerous other titles sit at lower odds, underscoring how guild nominations, critics' awards, and festival premieres later this year could rapidly shift momentum. Historical patterns show adapted categories often hinge on late-breaking critical consensus and voter sentiment closer to the ceremony.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET
Volume
$27,796End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With the 2026 awards cycle still in its early stages, trader sentiment for the Oscars 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay reflects broad uncertainty across a crowded field. The Invite and The Black Ball lead at 28.5% implied probability each, followed by The Odyssey at 16.5%, as markets price in potential frontrunners based on source material strength, announced adaptations, and early industry buzz. Numerous other titles sit at lower odds, underscoring how guild nominations, critics' awards, and festival premieres later this year could rapidly shift momentum. Historical patterns show adapted categories often hinge on late-breaking critical consensus and voter sentiment closer to the ceremony.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,796End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With the 2026 awards cycle still in its early stages, trader sentiment for the Oscars 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay reflects broad uncertainty across a crowded field. The Invite and The Black Ball lead at 28.5% implied probability each, followed by The Odyssey at 16.5%, as markets price in potential frontrunners based on source material strength, announced adaptations, and early industry buzz. Numerous other titles sit at lower odds, underscoring how guild nominations, critics' awards, and festival premieres later this year could rapidly shift momentum. Historical patterns show adapted categories often hinge on late-breaking critical consensus and voter sentiment closer to the ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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