The closely matched odds among top contenders like The Black Ball at 34.5% and The Invite at 29.5% reflect an early, fluid awards season for 2026 releases, where no single film has yet built decisive momentum through guild nominations or critics' circle wins. Traders appear to weigh factors such as source material strength, critical consensus on adaptation fidelity, and historical voting patterns favoring prestige literary or historical adaptations in the Best Adapted Screenplay category. Upcoming catalysts including fall festival premieres, guild shortlists, and early precursor results could quickly shift these probabilities, while lower-priced options like Dune: Part Three or Project Hail Mary sit further back pending broader industry buzz and box office context.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
The Black Ball 35%
The Invite 30%
The Odyssey 20%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth 6.6%
$27,004 Vol.
$27,004 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
The Black Ball
35%
The Invite
30%
The Odyssey
20%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
7%
Wildwood
6%
Project Hail Mary
5%
The Social Reckoning
5%
Dune: Part Three
4%
Ink
4%
Clarissa
2%
Cry to Heaven
1%
Toy Story 5
1%
The Whisper Man
1%
All of a Sudden
6%
Saturn Return
<1%
The Black Ball 35%
The Invite 30%
The Odyssey 20%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth 6.6%
$27,004 Vol.
$27,004 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
The Black Ball
$14,755 Vol.
35%
The Invite
$5,141 Vol.
30%
The Odyssey
$2,376 Vol.
20%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
$348 Vol.
7%
Wildwood
$546 Vol.
6%
Project Hail Mary
$480 Vol.
5%
The Social Reckoning
$265 Vol.
5%
Dune: Part Three
$426 Vol.
4%
Ink
$862 Vol.
4%
Clarissa
$182 Vol.
2%
Cry to Heaven
$221 Vol.
1%
Toy Story 5
$343 Vol.
1%
The Whisper Man
$207 Vol.
1%
All of a Sudden
$633 Vol.
6%
Saturn Return
$218 Vol.
<1%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched odds among top contenders like The Black Ball at 34.5% and The Invite at 29.5% reflect an early, fluid awards season for 2026 releases, where no single film has yet built decisive momentum through guild nominations or critics' circle wins. Traders appear to weigh factors such as source material strength, critical consensus on adaptation fidelity, and historical voting patterns favoring prestige literary or historical adaptations in the Best Adapted Screenplay category. Upcoming catalysts including fall festival premieres, guild shortlists, and early precursor results could quickly shift these probabilities, while lower-priced options like Dune: Part Three or Project Hail Mary sit further back pending broader industry buzz and box office context.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET
Volume
$27,004End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched odds among top contenders like The Black Ball at 34.5% and The Invite at 29.5% reflect an early, fluid awards season for 2026 releases, where no single film has yet built decisive momentum through guild nominations or critics' circle wins. Traders appear to weigh factors such as source material strength, critical consensus on adaptation fidelity, and historical voting patterns favoring prestige literary or historical adaptations in the Best Adapted Screenplay category. Upcoming catalysts including fall festival premieres, guild shortlists, and early precursor results could quickly shift these probabilities, while lower-priced options like Dune: Part Three or Project Hail Mary sit further back pending broader industry buzz and box office context.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,004End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched odds among top contenders like The Black Ball at 34.5% and The Invite at 29.5% reflect an early, fluid awards season for 2026 releases, where no single film has yet built decisive momentum through guild nominations or critics' circle wins. Traders appear to weigh factors such as source material strength, critical consensus on adaptation fidelity, and historical voting patterns favoring prestige literary or historical adaptations in the Best Adapted Screenplay category. Upcoming catalysts including fall festival premieres, guild shortlists, and early precursor results could quickly shift these probabilities, while lower-priced options like Dune: Part Three or Project Hail Mary sit further back pending broader industry buzz and box office context.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions