Alex Smalley's two-shot lead after three rounds at Aronimink has elevated him to the top of the field in this wide-open major, yet the market stays tightly bunched because multiple proven major winners and in-form players sit within striking distance. Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Rory McIlroy have closed ground with strong recent scoring, while Scottie Scheffler's poor third round has dropped him back and diluted his implied probability. The absence of any single dominant performance through 54 holes, combined with the course's demanding setup favoring accuracy off the tee and steady iron play, has kept the field competitive and left room for late surges or collapses among the top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlex Smalley 16.9%
Jon Rahm 14.3%
Ludvig Aberg 12.8%
Rory McIlroy 12.1%
$5,362,415 Vol.
$5,362,415 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Alex Smalley
17%
Jon Rahm
14%
Ludvig Aberg
13%
Rory McIlroy
12%
Xander Schauffele
7%
Scottie Scheffler
5%
Aaron Rai
4%
Nick Taylor
4%
Patrick Reed
4%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Matti Schmid
3%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Min Woo Lee
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Justin Rose
2%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Cameron Young
1%
Brooks Koepka
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Rickie Fowler
1%
Bud Cauley
1%
Sam Burns
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
David Puig
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Alex Smalley 16.9%
Jon Rahm 14.3%
Ludvig Aberg 12.8%
Rory McIlroy 12.1%
$5,362,415 Vol.
$5,362,415 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Alex Smalley
$116,233 Vol.
17%
Jon Rahm
$229,798 Vol.
14%
Ludvig Aberg
$128,024 Vol.
13%
Rory McIlroy
$383,539 Vol.
12%
Xander Schauffele
$342,326 Vol.
7%
Scottie Scheffler
$575,680 Vol.
5%
Aaron Rai
$58,649 Vol.
4%
Nick Taylor
$111,273 Vol.
4%
Patrick Reed
$79,640 Vol.
4%
Maverick McNealy
$65,094 Vol.
3%
Matti Schmid
$61,814 Vol.
3%
Chris Gotterup
$85,799 Vol.
2%
Min Woo Lee
$147,703 Vol.
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
$111,335 Vol.
2%
Justin Rose
$86,208 Vol.
2%
Kristoffer Reitan
$56,759 Vol.
1%
Joaquin Niemann
$48,633 Vol.
1%
Ben Griffin
$42,607 Vol.
1%
Cameron Young
$275,013 Vol.
1%
Brooks Koepka
$111,497 Vol.
1%
Cameron Smith
$45,383 Vol.
1%
Rickie Fowler
$75,571 Vol.
1%
Bud Cauley
$39,280 Vol.
1%
Sam Burns
$45,394 Vol.
<1%
Haotong Li
$99,506 Vol.
<1%
Harris English
$50,721 Vol.
<1%
Andrew Novak
$621 Vol.
<1%
David Puig
$54,512 Vol.
<1%
Brian Harman
$2,137 Vol.
<1%
Justin Thomas
$99,032 Vol.
<1%
Si Woo Kim
$49,825 Vol.
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
$68,765 Vol.
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
$50,630 Vol.
<1%
Jason Day
$47,670 Vol.
<1%
Elvis Smylie
$1,481 Vol.
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
$131,607 Vol.
<1%
Collin Morikawa
$209,234 Vol.
<1%
Jordan Spieth
$84,627 Vol.
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
$96,261 Vol.
<1%
Shane Lowry
$74,556 Vol.
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
$50,182 Vol.
<1%
Alex Noren
$4,596 Vol.
<1%
Corey Conners
$45,221 Vol.
<1%
Sam Stevens
$39,906 Vol.
<1%
Sahith Theegala
$54,523 Vol.
<1%
Michael Brennan
$14,720 Vol.
<1%
Ryan Fox
$6,101 Vol.
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
$48,169 Vol.
<1%
John Keefer
$1,305 Vol.
<1%
Andrew Putnam
$3,544 Vol.
<1%
Sami Valimaki
$1,835 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Brown
$8,963 Vol.
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
$1,848 Vol.
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
$100,184 Vol.
<1%
Matt Wallace
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Berger
$26,587 Vol.
<1%
Ryan Gerard
$21,069 Vol.
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
$10,945 Vol.
<1%
Dustin Johnson
$21,736 Vol.
<1%
Keith Mitchell
$1,956 Vol.
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
$4,146 Vol.
<1%
John Parry
$877 Vol.
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
$2,367 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Alex Smalley's two-shot lead after three rounds at Aronimink has elevated him to the top of the field in this wide-open major, yet the market stays tightly bunched because multiple proven major winners and in-form players sit within striking distance. Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Rory McIlroy have closed ground with strong recent scoring, while Scottie Scheffler's poor third round has dropped him back and diluted his implied probability. The absence of any single dominant performance through 54 holes, combined with the course's demanding setup favoring accuracy off the tee and steady iron play, has kept the field competitive and left room for late surges or collapses among the top contenders.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Volume
$5,362,415End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Alex Smalley's two-shot lead after three rounds at Aronimink has elevated him to the top of the field in this wide-open major, yet the market stays tightly bunched because multiple proven major winners and in-form players sit within striking distance. Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Rory McIlroy have closed ground with strong recent scoring, while Scottie Scheffler's poor third round has dropped him back and diluted his implied probability. The absence of any single dominant performance through 54 holes, combined with the course's demanding setup favoring accuracy off the tee and steady iron play, has kept the field competitive and left room for late surges or collapses among the top contenders.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,362,415End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alex Smalley's two-shot lead after three rounds at Aronimink has elevated him to the top of the field in this wide-open major, yet the market stays tightly bunched because multiple proven major winners and in-form players sit within striking distance. Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Rory McIlroy have closed ground with strong recent scoring, while Scottie Scheffler's poor third round has dropped him back and diluted his implied probability. The absence of any single dominant performance through 54 holes, combined with the course's demanding setup favoring accuracy off the tee and steady iron play, has kept the field competitive and left room for late surges or collapses among the top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions