The trader consensus reflects a wide-open 2026 PGA Championship field, with Rory McIlroy holding the highest implied probability at 25.1 percent due to his major championship experience and strong recent ball-striking form. Matti Schmid, Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Cameron Smith follow as the next tier, differentiated by consistent PGA Tour results, course-management skills on demanding layouts like Quail Hollow, and recent top finishes that signal momentum heading into the event. Lower probabilities assigned to players such as Nick Taylor and Xander Schauffele underscore how factors including current rankings, historical major performance, and rest advantages shape these dispersed odds across the field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMatti Schmid 18.9%
Rory McIlroy 18.6%
Jon Rahm 15.8%
Nick Taylor 12.6%
$7,391,902 Vol.
$7,391,902 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Matti Schmid
19%
Rory McIlroy
19%
Jon Rahm
16%
Nick Taylor
13%
Cameron Smith
11%
Ludvig Aberg
8%
Alex Smalley
6%
Xander Schauffele
5%
Justin Thomas
4%
Aaron Rai
3%
Justin Rose
1%
Chris Gotterup
<1%
Joaquin Niemann
<1%
Patrick Reed
<1%
Ben Griffin
<1%
Hideki Matsuyama
<1%
Maverick McNealy
<1%
Scottie Scheffler
<1%
Cameron Young
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Brooks Koepka
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Sam Burns
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Min Woo Lee
<1%
Rickie Fowler
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Kristoffer Reitan
<1%
Harris English
<1%
David Puig
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Bud Cauley
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Matti Schmid 18.9%
Rory McIlroy 18.6%
Jon Rahm 15.8%
Nick Taylor 12.6%
$7,391,902 Vol.
$7,391,902 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Matti Schmid
$115,399 Vol.
19%
Rory McIlroy
$691,027 Vol.
19%
Jon Rahm
$430,238 Vol.
16%
Nick Taylor
$164,593 Vol.
13%
Cameron Smith
$89,854 Vol.
11%
Ludvig Aberg
$240,812 Vol.
8%
Alex Smalley
$318,685 Vol.
6%
Xander Schauffele
$471,518 Vol.
5%
Justin Thomas
$135,547 Vol.
4%
Aaron Rai
$89,452 Vol.
3%
Justin Rose
$172,562 Vol.
1%
Chris Gotterup
$120,582 Vol.
<1%
Joaquin Niemann
$75,825 Vol.
<1%
Patrick Reed
$127,908 Vol.
<1%
Ben Griffin
$49,797 Vol.
<1%
Hideki Matsuyama
$163,673 Vol.
<1%
Maverick McNealy
$80,952 Vol.
<1%
Scottie Scheffler
$744,439 Vol.
<1%
Cameron Young
$295,076 Vol.
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
$162,805 Vol.
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
$72,795 Vol.
<1%
Brooks Koepka
$125,659 Vol.
<1%
Collin Morikawa
$210,723 Vol.
<1%
Sam Burns
$54,571 Vol.
<1%
Jordan Spieth
$91,722 Vol.
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
$134,675 Vol.
<1%
Shane Lowry
$74,556 Vol.
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
$54,789 Vol.
<1%
Alex Noren
$4,596 Vol.
<1%
Corey Conners
$45,221 Vol.
<1%
Haotong Li
$195,000 Vol.
<1%
Sam Stevens
$39,906 Vol.
<1%
Sahith Theegala
$54,523 Vol.
<1%
Michael Brennan
$14,720 Vol.
<1%
Ryan Fox
$6,101 Vol.
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
$48,170 Vol.
<1%
John Keefer
$1,305 Vol.
<1%
Andrew Novak
$935 Vol.
<1%
Andrew Putnam
$5,544 Vol.
<1%
Sami Valimaki
$1,835 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Brown
$8,963 Vol.
<1%
Min Woo Lee
$164,751 Vol.
<1%
Rickie Fowler
$88,039 Vol.
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
$66,525 Vol.
<1%
Si Woo Kim
$61,267 Vol.
<1%
Kristoffer Reitan
$132,700 Vol.
<1%
Harris English
$59,500 Vol.
<1%
David Puig
$58,385 Vol.
<1%
Jason Day
$48,263 Vol.
<1%
Brian Harman
$2,486 Vol.
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
$1,848 Vol.
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
$103,305 Vol.
<1%
Matt Wallace
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Berger
$26,588 Vol.
<1%
Bud Cauley
$42,600 Vol.
<1%
Ryan Gerard
$21,069 Vol.
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
$86,198 Vol.
<1%
Dustin Johnson
$21,736 Vol.
<1%
Keith Mitchell
$1,956 Vol.
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
$4,146 Vol.
<1%
John Parry
$877 Vol.
<1%
Elvis Smylie
$1,759 Vol.
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
$3,367 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The trader consensus reflects a wide-open 2026 PGA Championship field, with Rory McIlroy holding the highest implied probability at 25.1 percent due to his major championship experience and strong recent ball-striking form. Matti Schmid, Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Cameron Smith follow as the next tier, differentiated by consistent PGA Tour results, course-management skills on demanding layouts like Quail Hollow, and recent top finishes that signal momentum heading into the event. Lower probabilities assigned to players such as Nick Taylor and Xander Schauffele underscore how factors including current rankings, historical major performance, and rest advantages shape these dispersed odds across the field.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Volume
$7,391,902End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The trader consensus reflects a wide-open 2026 PGA Championship field, with Rory McIlroy holding the highest implied probability at 25.1 percent due to his major championship experience and strong recent ball-striking form. Matti Schmid, Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Cameron Smith follow as the next tier, differentiated by consistent PGA Tour results, course-management skills on demanding layouts like Quail Hollow, and recent top finishes that signal momentum heading into the event. Lower probabilities assigned to players such as Nick Taylor and Xander Schauffele underscore how factors including current rankings, historical major performance, and rest advantages shape these dispersed odds across the field.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,391,902End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The trader consensus reflects a wide-open 2026 PGA Championship field, with Rory McIlroy holding the highest implied probability at 25.1 percent due to his major championship experience and strong recent ball-striking form. Matti Schmid, Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Cameron Smith follow as the next tier, differentiated by consistent PGA Tour results, course-management skills on demanding layouts like Quail Hollow, and recent top finishes that signal momentum heading into the event. Lower probabilities assigned to players such as Nick Taylor and Xander Schauffele underscore how factors including current rankings, historical major performance, and rest advantages shape these dispersed odds across the field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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