The 2026 PGA Championship winner market shows a tightly bunched group of contenders according to trader consensus, with Alex Smalley, Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy holding the top implied probabilities between 12% and 17%. This competitive spread stems from strong recent PGA Tour form across multiple players, solid major championship pedigrees, and favorable course fits at the Quail Hollow host venue. Depth in the field, including consistent ball-striking and putting trends from the spring swing, prevents any one golfer from pulling away. Historical patterns of upsets in PGA events further support the balanced pricing, as late momentum or a single low round can quickly reshape outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlex Smalley 17.1%
Jon Rahm 14.6%
Ludvig Aberg 14.1%
Rory McIlroy 12.4%
$5,771,430 Vol.
$5,771,430 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Alex Smalley
17%
Jon Rahm
15%
Ludvig Aberg
14%
Rory McIlroy
12%
Xander Schauffele
7%
Scottie Scheffler
5%
Nick Taylor
4%
Aaron Rai
4%
Patrick Reed
3%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Matti Schmid
3%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Min Woo Lee
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Justin Rose
1%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Brooks Koepka
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Cameron Young
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Rickie Fowler
1%
Sam Burns
1%
David Puig
1%
Bud Cauley
1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Alex Smalley 17.1%
Jon Rahm 14.6%
Ludvig Aberg 14.1%
Rory McIlroy 12.4%
$5,771,430 Vol.
$5,771,430 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Alex Smalley
$168,598 Vol.
17%
Jon Rahm
$245,349 Vol.
15%
Ludvig Aberg
$142,513 Vol.
14%
Rory McIlroy
$413,428 Vol.
12%
Xander Schauffele
$360,984 Vol.
7%
Scottie Scheffler
$606,740 Vol.
5%
Nick Taylor
$126,932 Vol.
4%
Aaron Rai
$61,659 Vol.
4%
Patrick Reed
$88,345 Vol.
3%
Maverick McNealy
$70,977 Vol.
3%
Matti Schmid
$76,477 Vol.
3%
Chris Gotterup
$89,485 Vol.
2%
Min Woo Lee
$156,704 Vol.
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
$115,138 Vol.
2%
Justin Rose
$117,928 Vol.
1%
Kristoffer Reitan
$112,591 Vol.
1%
Joaquin Niemann
$51,555 Vol.
1%
Brooks Koepka
$117,113 Vol.
1%
Ben Griffin
$44,159 Vol.
1%
Cameron Young
$285,395 Vol.
1%
Cameron Smith
$49,549 Vol.
1%
Rickie Fowler
$84,789 Vol.
1%
Sam Burns
$52,908 Vol.
1%
David Puig
$56,598 Vol.
1%
Bud Cauley
$41,502 Vol.
1%
Haotong Li
$102,177 Vol.
<1%
Brian Harman
$2,281 Vol.
<1%
Justin Thomas
$100,598 Vol.
<1%
Si Woo Kim
$55,409 Vol.
<1%
Harris English
$51,015 Vol.
<1%
Jordan Spieth
$88,951 Vol.
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
$121,570 Vol.
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
$52,789 Vol.
<1%
Andrew Novak
$621 Vol.
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
$64,525 Vol.
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
$135,443 Vol.
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
$71,782 Vol.
<1%
Collin Morikawa
$209,723 Vol.
<1%
Shane Lowry
$74,556 Vol.
<1%
Alex Noren
$4,596 Vol.
<1%
Corey Conners
$45,221 Vol.
<1%
Sam Stevens
$39,906 Vol.
<1%
Sahith Theegala
$54,523 Vol.
<1%
Michael Brennan
$14,720 Vol.
<1%
Ryan Fox
$6,101 Vol.
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
$48,170 Vol.
<1%
John Keefer
$1,305 Vol.
<1%
Andrew Putnam
$3,544 Vol.
<1%
Sami Valimaki
$1,835 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Brown
$8,963 Vol.
<1%
Jason Day
$48,241 Vol.
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
$1,848 Vol.
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
$101,185 Vol.
<1%
Matt Wallace
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Berger
$26,588 Vol.
<1%
Ryan Gerard
$21,069 Vol.
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
$10,945 Vol.
<1%
Dustin Johnson
$21,736 Vol.
<1%
Keith Mitchell
$1,956 Vol.
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
$4,146 Vol.
<1%
John Parry
$877 Vol.
<1%
Elvis Smylie
$1,740 Vol.
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
$2,367 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 PGA Championship winner market shows a tightly bunched group of contenders according to trader consensus, with Alex Smalley, Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy holding the top implied probabilities between 12% and 17%. This competitive spread stems from strong recent PGA Tour form across multiple players, solid major championship pedigrees, and favorable course fits at the Quail Hollow host venue. Depth in the field, including consistent ball-striking and putting trends from the spring swing, prevents any one golfer from pulling away. Historical patterns of upsets in PGA events further support the balanced pricing, as late momentum or a single low round can quickly reshape outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Volume
$5,771,430End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 PGA Championship winner market shows a tightly bunched group of contenders according to trader consensus, with Alex Smalley, Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy holding the top implied probabilities between 12% and 17%. This competitive spread stems from strong recent PGA Tour form across multiple players, solid major championship pedigrees, and favorable course fits at the Quail Hollow host venue. Depth in the field, including consistent ball-striking and putting trends from the spring swing, prevents any one golfer from pulling away. Historical patterns of upsets in PGA events further support the balanced pricing, as late momentum or a single low round can quickly reshape outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,771,430End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 PGA Championship winner market shows a tightly bunched group of contenders according to trader consensus, with Alex Smalley, Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy holding the top implied probabilities between 12% and 17%. This competitive spread stems from strong recent PGA Tour form across multiple players, solid major championship pedigrees, and favorable course fits at the Quail Hollow host venue. Depth in the field, including consistent ball-striking and putting trends from the spring swing, prevents any one golfer from pulling away. Historical patterns of upsets in PGA events further support the balanced pricing, as late momentum or a single low round can quickly reshape outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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