The 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club remains wide open heading into the final round, with Alex Smalley atop the leaderboard after a third-round 68 that gave him a two-shot cushion at six under. A packed leaderboard keeps the implied probabilities tight, as Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, Nick Taylor, Matti Schmid, and Aaron Rai sit just two shots back while Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele lurk three behind after strong weekend moves. Recent form, ball-striking consistency on the firm setup, and the absence of any dominant separation after 54 holes have produced this bunched market consensus among traders. With more than a dozen players within five shots and favorable scoring conditions possible on Sunday, small shifts in momentum or a single hot putter could still swing the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlex Smalley 17.1%
Jon Rahm 14.7%
Ludvig Aberg 13.4%
Rory McIlroy 12.3%
$5,565,859 Vol.
$5,565,859 Vol.
Alex Smalley
17%
Jon Rahm
15%
Ludvig Aberg
13%
Rory McIlroy
12%
Xander Schauffele
6%
Scottie Scheffler
5%
Nick Taylor
5%
Aaron Rai
4%
Patrick Reed
3%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Matti Schmid
3%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Min Woo Lee
2%
Justin Rose
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Cameron Young
1%
Brooks Koepka
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Rickie Fowler
1%
Sam Burns
1%
David Puig
1%
Bud Cauley
1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Alex Smalley 17.1%
Jon Rahm 14.7%
Ludvig Aberg 13.4%
Rory McIlroy 12.3%
$5,565,859 Vol.
$5,565,859 Vol.
Alex Smalley
17%
Jon Rahm
15%
Ludvig Aberg
13%
Rory McIlroy
12%
Xander Schauffele
6%
Scottie Scheffler
5%
Nick Taylor
5%
Aaron Rai
4%
Patrick Reed
3%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Matti Schmid
3%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Min Woo Lee
2%
Justin Rose
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Cameron Young
1%
Brooks Koepka
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Rickie Fowler
1%
Sam Burns
1%
David Puig
1%
Bud Cauley
1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club remains wide open heading into the final round, with Alex Smalley atop the leaderboard after a third-round 68 that gave him a two-shot cushion at six under. A packed leaderboard keeps the implied probabilities tight, as Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, Nick Taylor, Matti Schmid, and Aaron Rai sit just two shots back while Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele lurk three behind after strong weekend moves. Recent form, ball-striking consistency on the firm setup, and the absence of any dominant separation after 54 holes have produced this bunched market consensus among traders. With more than a dozen players within five shots and favorable scoring conditions possible on Sunday, small shifts in momentum or a single hot putter could still swing the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions