Trader consensus positions Aaron Rai as the frontrunner for the 2026 PGA Championship, reflecting his recent PGA Tour form and strong season-long results entering the major. Jon Rahm draws the next tier of implied probability due to his proven major pedigree and consistent contention in high-stakes events. The broad distribution across the rest of the field highlights golf's inherent unpredictability, where course conditions at the host venue, weather variables, player health, and head-to-head historical matchups can rapidly alter outcomes. This pricing captures crowd-sourced assessment of current rankings, recent momentum, and situational factors typical for PGA Championship fields.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAaron Rai 67.5%
Jon Rahm 15.1%
Matti Schmid 9.0%
Alex Smalley 3.0%
$8,131,712 Vol.
$8,131,712 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Aaron Rai
68%
Jon Rahm
15%
Matti Schmid
9%
Alex Smalley
3%
Rory McIlroy
3%
Justin Thomas
3%
Ludvig Aberg
1%
Nick Taylor
<1%
Xander Schauffele
<1%
Patrick Reed
<1%
Maverick McNealy
<1%
Scottie Scheffler
<1%
Cameron Young
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Brooks Koepka
<1%
Sam Burns
<1%
Chris Gotterup
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Cameron Smith
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Min Woo Lee
<1%
Justin Rose
<1%
Rickie Fowler
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Hideki Matsuyama
<1%
Kristoffer Reitan
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Ben Griffin
<1%
Joaquin Niemann
<1%
David Puig
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Bud Cauley
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Aaron Rai 67.5%
Jon Rahm 15.1%
Matti Schmid 9.0%
Alex Smalley 3.0%
$8,131,712 Vol.
$8,131,712 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Aaron Rai
$190,495 Vol.
68%
Jon Rahm
$592,481 Vol.
15%
Matti Schmid
$167,886 Vol.
9%
Alex Smalley
$337,914 Vol.
3%
Rory McIlroy
$793,480 Vol.
3%
Justin Thomas
$174,324 Vol.
3%
Ludvig Aberg
$295,304 Vol.
1%
Nick Taylor
$207,224 Vol.
<1%
Xander Schauffele
$499,422 Vol.
<1%
Patrick Reed
$163,079 Vol.
<1%
Maverick McNealy
$85,949 Vol.
<1%
Scottie Scheffler
$756,446 Vol.
<1%
Cameron Young
$296,071 Vol.
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
$162,805 Vol.
<1%
Brooks Koepka
$125,896 Vol.
<1%
Sam Burns
$54,571 Vol.
<1%
Chris Gotterup
$125,252 Vol.
<1%
Jordan Spieth
$91,722 Vol.
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
$134,675 Vol.
<1%
Alex Noren
$4,596 Vol.
<1%
Haotong Li
$195,029 Vol.
<1%
Cameron Smith
$141,359 Vol.
<1%
Sam Stevens
$39,906 Vol.
<1%
Sahith Theegala
$54,523 Vol.
<1%
Michael Brennan
$14,720 Vol.
<1%
Ryan Fox
$6,101 Vol.
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
$48,170 Vol.
<1%
John Keefer
$1,305 Vol.
<1%
Andrew Novak
$935 Vol.
<1%
Andrew Putnam
$5,544 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Brown
$8,963 Vol.
<1%
Min Woo Lee
$164,791 Vol.
<1%
Justin Rose
$177,264 Vol.
<1%
Rickie Fowler
$88,039 Vol.
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
$66,525 Vol.
<1%
Si Woo Kim
$61,267 Vol.
<1%
Hideki Matsuyama
$163,744 Vol.
<1%
Kristoffer Reitan
$132,700 Vol.
<1%
Harris English
$59,500 Vol.
<1%
Ben Griffin
$53,171 Vol.
<1%
Joaquin Niemann
$80,009 Vol.
<1%
David Puig
$58,385 Vol.
<1%
Brian Harman
$3,816 Vol.
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
$1,848 Vol.
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
$103,305 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Berger
$26,588 Vol.
<1%
Bud Cauley
$42,600 Vol.
<1%
Dustin Johnson
$21,736 Vol.
<1%
Keith Mitchell
$1,956 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus positions Aaron Rai as the frontrunner for the 2026 PGA Championship, reflecting his recent PGA Tour form and strong season-long results entering the major. Jon Rahm draws the next tier of implied probability due to his proven major pedigree and consistent contention in high-stakes events. The broad distribution across the rest of the field highlights golf's inherent unpredictability, where course conditions at the host venue, weather variables, player health, and head-to-head historical matchups can rapidly alter outcomes. This pricing captures crowd-sourced assessment of current rankings, recent momentum, and situational factors typical for PGA Championship fields.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Volume
$8,131,712End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus positions Aaron Rai as the frontrunner for the 2026 PGA Championship, reflecting his recent PGA Tour form and strong season-long results entering the major. Jon Rahm draws the next tier of implied probability due to his proven major pedigree and consistent contention in high-stakes events. The broad distribution across the rest of the field highlights golf's inherent unpredictability, where course conditions at the host venue, weather variables, player health, and head-to-head historical matchups can rapidly alter outcomes. This pricing captures crowd-sourced assessment of current rankings, recent momentum, and situational factors typical for PGA Championship fields.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,131,712End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus positions Aaron Rai as the frontrunner for the 2026 PGA Championship, reflecting his recent PGA Tour form and strong season-long results entering the major. Jon Rahm draws the next tier of implied probability due to his proven major pedigree and consistent contention in high-stakes events. The broad distribution across the rest of the field highlights golf's inherent unpredictability, where course conditions at the host venue, weather variables, player health, and head-to-head historical matchups can rapidly alter outcomes. This pricing captures crowd-sourced assessment of current rankings, recent momentum, and situational factors typical for PGA Championship fields.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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