Aaron Rai has seized a commanding lead during the final round of the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club, driving trader consensus to an overwhelming implied probability for him as the winner. His strong ball-striking and putting have produced a multi-shot advantage over a crowded leaderboard that includes Matti Schmid, Jon Rahm, and others, reflecting his superior recent form and ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. While the event remains ongoing, this positioning leaves limited room for challengers to close the gap without significant errors from the leader. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected late-round collapse by Rai, adverse weather conditions affecting play, or an improbable surge from the field, though such shifts remain uncommon given the current margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAaron Rai 99.6%
Matti Schmid 1.9%
Jon Rahm <1%
Justin Thomas <1%
$8,545,781 Vol.
$8,545,781 Vol.
Aaron Rai
100%
Matti Schmid
2%
Jon Rahm
1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Alex Smalley
<1%
Ludvig Aberg
<1%
Scottie Scheffler
<1%
Rory McIlroy
<1%
Cameron Young
<1%
Xander Schauffele
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Brooks Koepka
<1%
Sam Burns
<1%
Chris Gotterup
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Maverick McNealy
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Cameron Smith
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Min Woo Lee
<1%
Justin Rose
<1%
Rickie Fowler
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Patrick Reed
<1%
Hideki Matsuyama
<1%
Kristoffer Reitan
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Ben Griffin
<1%
Joaquin Niemann
<1%
David Puig
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Nick Taylor
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Bud Cauley
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Aaron Rai 99.6%
Matti Schmid 1.9%
Jon Rahm <1%
Justin Thomas <1%
$8,545,781 Vol.
$8,545,781 Vol.
Aaron Rai
100%
Matti Schmid
2%
Jon Rahm
1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Alex Smalley
<1%
Ludvig Aberg
<1%
Scottie Scheffler
<1%
Rory McIlroy
<1%
Cameron Young
<1%
Xander Schauffele
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Brooks Koepka
<1%
Sam Burns
<1%
Chris Gotterup
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Maverick McNealy
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Cameron Smith
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Min Woo Lee
<1%
Justin Rose
<1%
Rickie Fowler
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Patrick Reed
<1%
Hideki Matsuyama
<1%
Kristoffer Reitan
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Ben Griffin
<1%
Joaquin Niemann
<1%
David Puig
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Nick Taylor
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Bud Cauley
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Aaron Rai has seized a commanding lead during the final round of the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club, driving trader consensus to an overwhelming implied probability for him as the winner. His strong ball-striking and putting have produced a multi-shot advantage over a crowded leaderboard that includes Matti Schmid, Jon Rahm, and others, reflecting his superior recent form and ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. While the event remains ongoing, this positioning leaves limited room for challengers to close the gap without significant errors from the leader. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected late-round collapse by Rai, adverse weather conditions affecting play, or an improbable surge from the field, though such shifts remain uncommon given the current margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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