Alex Smalley’s two-shot lead entering the final round at Aronimink has shifted trader consensus toward him as the frontrunner in the 2026 PGA Championship, reflecting his strong ball-striking and recent momentum after entering the week as a long shot. Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Rory McIlroy remain tightly bunched behind because each posted competitive rounds and hold proven major pedigree that keeps implied probabilities clustered. Scottie Scheffler’s slip after a disappointing third round has lengthened his position, while players such as Cameron Young and Xander Schauffele stay within striking distance due to their consistent recent form and course history. The bunched pricing underscores how quickly leaderboard movement in a major alters market sentiment ahead of Sunday’s decisive round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlex Smalley 16.9%
Jon Rahm 14.4%
Ludvig Aberg 13.2%
Rory McIlroy 12.0%
$5,503,775 Vol.
$5,503,775 Vol.
Alex Smalley
17%
Jon Rahm
14%
Ludvig Aberg
13%
Rory McIlroy
12%
Xander Schauffele
6%
Scottie Scheffler
5%
Nick Taylor
4%
Aaron Rai
4%
Patrick Reed
3%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Matti Schmid
3%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Justin Rose
2%
Min Woo Lee
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Cameron Young
1%
Brooks Koepka
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Rickie Fowler
1%
Sam Burns
1%
David Puig
1%
Bud Cauley
1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Alex Smalley 16.9%
Jon Rahm 14.4%
Ludvig Aberg 13.2%
Rory McIlroy 12.0%
$5,503,775 Vol.
$5,503,775 Vol.
Alex Smalley
17%
Jon Rahm
14%
Ludvig Aberg
13%
Rory McIlroy
12%
Xander Schauffele
6%
Scottie Scheffler
5%
Nick Taylor
4%
Aaron Rai
4%
Patrick Reed
3%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Matti Schmid
3%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Justin Rose
2%
Min Woo Lee
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Cameron Young
1%
Brooks Koepka
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Rickie Fowler
1%
Sam Burns
1%
David Puig
1%
Bud Cauley
1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Alex Smalley’s two-shot lead entering the final round at Aronimink has shifted trader consensus toward him as the frontrunner in the 2026 PGA Championship, reflecting his strong ball-striking and recent momentum after entering the week as a long shot. Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Rory McIlroy remain tightly bunched behind because each posted competitive rounds and hold proven major pedigree that keeps implied probabilities clustered. Scottie Scheffler’s slip after a disappointing third round has lengthened his position, while players such as Cameron Young and Xander Schauffele stay within striking distance due to their consistent recent form and course history. The bunched pricing underscores how quickly leaderboard movement in a major alters market sentiment ahead of Sunday’s decisive round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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