Entering the final round at Aronimink Golf Club, the 2026 PGA Championship features a bunched leaderboard that has compressed probabilities across the top contenders. Alex Smalley's solo lead after three rounds, combined with steady positioning from Jon Rahm and Ludvig Aberg, has kept the race competitive, while Rory McIlroy's consistent tee-to-green play sustains his share. Recent rounds highlight how the course setup rewards accurate approach shots and bogey avoidance, allowing multiple players within five shots to remain viable. This setup underscores the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing, where no single golfer holds a dominant edge entering Sunday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJon Rahm 36.5%
Ludvig Aberg 20.0%
Alex Smalley 13.6%
Rory McIlroy 12.5%
$6,858,385 Vol.
$6,858,385 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Jon Rahm
37%
Ludvig Aberg
20%
Alex Smalley
14%
Rory McIlroy
13%
Xander Schauffele
4%
Nick Taylor
4%
Aaron Rai
3%
Cameron Smith
3%
Joaquin Niemann
3%
Justin Rose
2%
Maverick McNealy
1%
Hideki Matsuyama
1%
Justin Thomas
1%
Chris Gotterup
1%
Matti Schmid
1%
Scottie Scheffler
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Bud Cauley
1%
Min Woo Lee
1%
Kristoffer Reitan
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Brooks Koepka
<1%
Patrick Reed
<1%
Cameron Young
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Sam Burns
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Rickie Fowler
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
David Puig
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Jon Rahm 36.5%
Ludvig Aberg 20.0%
Alex Smalley 13.6%
Rory McIlroy 12.5%
$6,858,385 Vol.
$6,858,385 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Jon Rahm
$355,341 Vol.
37%
Ludvig Aberg
$203,964 Vol.
20%
Alex Smalley
$296,569 Vol.
14%
Rory McIlroy
$530,813 Vol.
13%
Xander Schauffele
$376,386 Vol.
4%
Nick Taylor
$154,902 Vol.
4%
Aaron Rai
$81,825 Vol.
3%
Cameron Smith
$73,263 Vol.
3%
Joaquin Niemann
$68,453 Vol.
3%
Justin Rose
$168,739 Vol.
2%
Maverick McNealy
$76,222 Vol.
1%
Hideki Matsuyama
$152,712 Vol.
1%
Justin Thomas
$119,689 Vol.
1%
Chris Gotterup
$119,362 Vol.
1%
Matti Schmid
$96,446 Vol.
1%
Scottie Scheffler
$723,461 Vol.
1%
Ben Griffin
$49,054 Vol.
1%
Bud Cauley
$42,600 Vol.
1%
Min Woo Lee
$164,512 Vol.
1%
Kristoffer Reitan
$121,574 Vol.
<1%
Harris English
$56,754 Vol.
<1%
Brooks Koepka
$125,402 Vol.
<1%
Patrick Reed
$112,249 Vol.
<1%
Cameron Young
$293,786 Vol.
<1%
Andrew Novak
$935 Vol.
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
$161,801 Vol.
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
$72,794 Vol.
<1%
Collin Morikawa
$210,723 Vol.
<1%
Sam Burns
$54,571 Vol.
<1%
Jordan Spieth
$91,722 Vol.
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
$134,675 Vol.
<1%
Shane Lowry
$74,556 Vol.
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
$54,789 Vol.
<1%
Alex Noren
$4,596 Vol.
<1%
Corey Conners
$45,221 Vol.
<1%
Haotong Li
$195,000 Vol.
<1%
Sam Stevens
$39,906 Vol.
<1%
Sahith Theegala
$54,523 Vol.
<1%
Michael Brennan
$14,720 Vol.
<1%
Ryan Fox
$6,101 Vol.
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
$48,170 Vol.
<1%
John Keefer
$1,305 Vol.
<1%
Andrew Putnam
$5,544 Vol.
<1%
Sami Valimaki
$1,835 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Brown
$8,963 Vol.
<1%
Rickie Fowler
$88,039 Vol.
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
$66,525 Vol.
<1%
Si Woo Kim
$61,267 Vol.
<1%
David Puig
$58,385 Vol.
<1%
Jason Day
$48,263 Vol.
<1%
Brian Harman
$2,486 Vol.
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
$1,848 Vol.
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
$103,305 Vol.
<1%
Matt Wallace
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Berger
$26,588 Vol.
<1%
Ryan Gerard
$21,069 Vol.
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
$86,198 Vol.
<1%
Dustin Johnson
$21,736 Vol.
<1%
Keith Mitchell
$1,956 Vol.
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
$4,146 Vol.
<1%
John Parry
$877 Vol.
<1%
Elvis Smylie
$1,759 Vol.
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
$3,367 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Entering the final round at Aronimink Golf Club, the 2026 PGA Championship features a bunched leaderboard that has compressed probabilities across the top contenders. Alex Smalley's solo lead after three rounds, combined with steady positioning from Jon Rahm and Ludvig Aberg, has kept the race competitive, while Rory McIlroy's consistent tee-to-green play sustains his share. Recent rounds highlight how the course setup rewards accurate approach shots and bogey avoidance, allowing multiple players within five shots to remain viable. This setup underscores the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing, where no single golfer holds a dominant edge entering Sunday.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Volume
$6,858,385End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Entering the final round at Aronimink Golf Club, the 2026 PGA Championship features a bunched leaderboard that has compressed probabilities across the top contenders. Alex Smalley's solo lead after three rounds, combined with steady positioning from Jon Rahm and Ludvig Aberg, has kept the race competitive, while Rory McIlroy's consistent tee-to-green play sustains his share. Recent rounds highlight how the course setup rewards accurate approach shots and bogey avoidance, allowing multiple players within five shots to remain viable. This setup underscores the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing, where no single golfer holds a dominant edge entering Sunday.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,858,385End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Entering the final round at Aronimink Golf Club, the 2026 PGA Championship features a bunched leaderboard that has compressed probabilities across the top contenders. Alex Smalley's solo lead after three rounds, combined with steady positioning from Jon Rahm and Ludvig Aberg, has kept the race competitive, while Rory McIlroy's consistent tee-to-green play sustains his share. Recent rounds highlight how the course setup rewards accurate approach shots and bogey avoidance, allowing multiple players within five shots to remain viable. This setup underscores the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing, where no single golfer holds a dominant edge entering Sunday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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