Alex Smalley holds a two-shot lead after 54 holes at Aronimink Golf Club, yet the 2026 PGA Championship winner market remains tightly bunched because the leaderboard is historically dense with 30 players within five shots. Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Rory McIlroy sit among the closest pursuers after strong third-round moves, bringing major-winning experience and current form that offsets Smalley’s lack of PGA Tour victories. Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler linger just outside the top group, while recent momentum from players like Nick Taylor and Aaron Rai adds further uncertainty heading into Sunday. This setup keeps implied probabilities clustered among the top four contenders as final-round conditions and pressure on the leader create realistic paths for multiple outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlex Smalley 17.3%
Jon Rahm 14.7%
Ludvig Aberg 13.7%
Rory McIlroy 12.0%
$5,648,024 Vol.
$5,648,024 Vol.
Alex Smalley
17%
Jon Rahm
15%
Ludvig Aberg
14%
Rory McIlroy
12%
Xander Schauffele
6%
Scottie Scheffler
5%
Nick Taylor
4%
Aaron Rai
4%
Patrick Reed
3%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Matti Schmid
3%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Min Woo Lee
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Justin Rose
2%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
Brooks Koepka
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Cameron Young
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Sam Burns
1%
Rickie Fowler
1%
Bud Cauley
1%
David Puig
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Alex Smalley 17.3%
Jon Rahm 14.7%
Ludvig Aberg 13.7%
Rory McIlroy 12.0%
$5,648,024 Vol.
$5,648,024 Vol.
Alex Smalley
17%
Jon Rahm
15%
Ludvig Aberg
14%
Rory McIlroy
12%
Xander Schauffele
6%
Scottie Scheffler
5%
Nick Taylor
4%
Aaron Rai
4%
Patrick Reed
3%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Matti Schmid
3%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Min Woo Lee
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Justin Rose
2%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
Brooks Koepka
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Cameron Young
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Sam Burns
1%
Rickie Fowler
1%
Bud Cauley
1%
David Puig
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Alex Smalley holds a two-shot lead after 54 holes at Aronimink Golf Club, yet the 2026 PGA Championship winner market remains tightly bunched because the leaderboard is historically dense with 30 players within five shots. Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, and Rory McIlroy sit among the closest pursuers after strong third-round moves, bringing major-winning experience and current form that offsets Smalley’s lack of PGA Tour victories. Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler linger just outside the top group, while recent momentum from players like Nick Taylor and Aaron Rai adds further uncertainty heading into Sunday. This setup keeps implied probabilities clustered among the top four contenders as final-round conditions and pressure on the leader create realistic paths for multiple outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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