The tightly bunched leaderboard after three rounds at Aronimink has shaped trader sentiment, with Alex Smalley holding a one- or two-shot advantage yet trailing Jon Rahm in implied probability. Rahm’s major-championship pedigree and steady ball-striking under pressure have kept him atop the market despite Smalley’s recent hot form and first PGA Tour win opportunity. Ludvig Åberg’s elite tee-to-green numbers and Rory McIlroy’s strong scoring pace in the third round have also supported their respective shares, while several other contenders sit within four shots, creating realistic paths for multiple outcomes on a demanding final-round layout where birdie opportunities and late surges remain possible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJon Rahm 23.4%
Ludvig Aberg 21.4%
Rory McIlroy 17.4%
Alex Smalley 15.8%
$7,179,041 Vol.
$7,179,041 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Jon Rahm
23%
Ludvig Aberg
21%
Rory McIlroy
17%
Alex Smalley
16%
Nick Taylor
8%
Cameron Smith
6%
Matti Schmid
5%
Xander Schauffele
3%
Aaron Rai
3%
Joaquin Niemann
2%
Justin Thomas
2%
Justin Rose
1%
Maverick McNealy
1%
Chris Gotterup
1%
Scottie Scheffler
1%
Harris English
1%
Patrick Reed
1%
Ben Griffin
<1%
Bud Cauley
<1%
Hideki Matsuyama
<1%
Cameron Young
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Brooks Koepka
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Sam Burns
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Novak
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Min Woo Lee
<1%
Rickie Fowler
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Kristoffer Reitan
<1%
David Puig
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Jon Rahm 23.4%
Ludvig Aberg 21.4%
Rory McIlroy 17.4%
Alex Smalley 15.8%
$7,179,041 Vol.
$7,179,041 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Jon Rahm
$388,988 Vol.
23%
Ludvig Aberg
$220,708 Vol.
21%
Rory McIlroy
$600,265 Vol.
17%
Alex Smalley
$307,394 Vol.
16%
Nick Taylor
$159,959 Vol.
8%
Cameron Smith
$84,974 Vol.
6%
Matti Schmid
$100,285 Vol.
5%
Xander Schauffele
$467,389 Vol.
3%
Aaron Rai
$87,166 Vol.
3%
Joaquin Niemann
$74,239 Vol.
2%
Justin Thomas
$125,752 Vol.
2%
Justin Rose
$170,891 Vol.
1%
Maverick McNealy
$79,642 Vol.
1%
Chris Gotterup
$120,233 Vol.
1%
Scottie Scheffler
$737,627 Vol.
1%
Harris English
$59,455 Vol.
1%
Patrick Reed
$126,850 Vol.
1%
Ben Griffin
$49,621 Vol.
<1%
Bud Cauley
$42,600 Vol.
<1%
Hideki Matsuyama
$161,126 Vol.
<1%
Cameron Young
$294,986 Vol.
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
$162,805 Vol.
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
$72,795 Vol.
<1%
Brooks Koepka
$125,403 Vol.
<1%
Collin Morikawa
$210,723 Vol.
<1%
Sam Burns
$54,571 Vol.
<1%
Jordan Spieth
$91,722 Vol.
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
$134,675 Vol.
<1%
Shane Lowry
$74,556 Vol.
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
$54,789 Vol.
<1%
Alex Noren
$4,596 Vol.
<1%
Corey Conners
$45,221 Vol.
<1%
Haotong Li
$195,000 Vol.
<1%
Sam Stevens
$39,906 Vol.
<1%
Sahith Theegala
$54,523 Vol.
<1%
Michael Brennan
$14,720 Vol.
<1%
Ryan Fox
$6,101 Vol.
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
$48,170 Vol.
<1%
John Keefer
$1,305 Vol.
<1%
Andrew Novak
$935 Vol.
<1%
Andrew Putnam
$5,544 Vol.
<1%
Sami Valimaki
$1,835 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Brown
$8,963 Vol.
<1%
Min Woo Lee
$164,751 Vol.
<1%
Rickie Fowler
$88,039 Vol.
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
$66,525 Vol.
<1%
Si Woo Kim
$61,267 Vol.
<1%
Kristoffer Reitan
$131,700 Vol.
<1%
David Puig
$58,385 Vol.
<1%
Jason Day
$48,263 Vol.
<1%
Brian Harman
$2,486 Vol.
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
$1,848 Vol.
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
$103,305 Vol.
<1%
Matt Wallace
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Berger
$26,588 Vol.
<1%
Ryan Gerard
$21,069 Vol.
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
$86,198 Vol.
<1%
Dustin Johnson
$21,736 Vol.
<1%
Keith Mitchell
$1,956 Vol.
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
$4,146 Vol.
<1%
John Parry
$877 Vol.
<1%
Elvis Smylie
$1,759 Vol.
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
$3,367 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tightly bunched leaderboard after three rounds at Aronimink has shaped trader sentiment, with Alex Smalley holding a one- or two-shot advantage yet trailing Jon Rahm in implied probability. Rahm’s major-championship pedigree and steady ball-striking under pressure have kept him atop the market despite Smalley’s recent hot form and first PGA Tour win opportunity. Ludvig Åberg’s elite tee-to-green numbers and Rory McIlroy’s strong scoring pace in the third round have also supported their respective shares, while several other contenders sit within four shots, creating realistic paths for multiple outcomes on a demanding final-round layout where birdie opportunities and late surges remain possible.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Volume
$7,179,041End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tightly bunched leaderboard after three rounds at Aronimink has shaped trader sentiment, with Alex Smalley holding a one- or two-shot advantage yet trailing Jon Rahm in implied probability. Rahm’s major-championship pedigree and steady ball-striking under pressure have kept him atop the market despite Smalley’s recent hot form and first PGA Tour win opportunity. Ludvig Åberg’s elite tee-to-green numbers and Rory McIlroy’s strong scoring pace in the third round have also supported their respective shares, while several other contenders sit within four shots, creating realistic paths for multiple outcomes on a demanding final-round layout where birdie opportunities and late surges remain possible.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,179,041End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tightly bunched leaderboard after three rounds at Aronimink has shaped trader sentiment, with Alex Smalley holding a one- or two-shot advantage yet trailing Jon Rahm in implied probability. Rahm’s major-championship pedigree and steady ball-striking under pressure have kept him atop the market despite Smalley’s recent hot form and first PGA Tour win opportunity. Ludvig Åberg’s elite tee-to-green numbers and Rory McIlroy’s strong scoring pace in the third round have also supported their respective shares, while several other contenders sit within four shots, creating realistic paths for multiple outcomes on a demanding final-round layout where birdie opportunities and late surges remain possible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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